The cryptocurrency XRP has surged over 550% since November, recently hitting the $3 mark, and sparking significant dialogue within crypto markets regarding its potential next steps. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen has revealed long-term chart patterns that suggest XRP could reach $34 by mid-2026, capitalizing on recent legal developments and market sentiment related to ETF approvals.
Technical Breakouts Fuel Multi-Year Rally
According to Van Lagen, XRP has emerged from a seven-year double-bottom pattern after surpassing resistance at approximately $1.80. This breakout was subsequently validated by a retest of the neckline, which now serves as support. In technical analysis, such retests are often interpreted as confirmations of a strong breakout.
Utilizing a Fibonacci extension of 2.00, the price target from this pattern indicates a potential rise to $34 by mid-2026. This pattern parallels XRP’s price action from 2014 to 2017, during which a long-term base similarly led to a parabolic rally exceeding 100,000%.
XRP markets have seen multiple substantial gains, including a remarkable 1,072% rise from the lows of 2022 and a 1,625% increase during the 2020-2021 cycle.
Market Drivers Behind XRP’s Rally
The 2020-2021 rally coincided with near-zero interest rates in the U.S., while the current surge has been propelled by developments in the Ripple lawsuit, improving legal clarity, exchange listings, and optimism surrounding a potential spot XRP ETF. In 2025, market sentiment has been notably influenced by forecasts indicating a 95% likelihood of spot ETF approval.
Analysts suggest that if approval occurs, XRP could increase to around $27, bringing it closer to Van Lagen’s target. The ETF narrative has maintained bullish momentum this year, with traders considering potential influxes of institutional capital.
Historically, significant capital inflows often occur once regulatory milestones are reached, which have led to strong short-term price spikes.
On-chain Indicators Signal Valuation Risks
Despite the robust recovery, on-chain data reveal potential concerns. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) shows activity levels significantly lower than other major Layer 1 blockchains, including Ethereum. Data from DefiLlama indicates that while XRP holds a market capitalization of $190 billion, its total value locked (TVL) stands at only $85 million, resulting in a market cap to TVL ratio of about 2,200.
This contrasts sharply with Ethereum’s ratio of about 5.6, despite XRP’s market value being nearly 40% that of Ethereum. Another potential challenge is that over 95% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently profitable, according to Glassnode.
Historical data suggests that such high levels of profitability during previous rallies have often preceded significant price corrections as profit-taking intensified, leading to increased selling pressure. This trend has been evident during the 2020-2021 and 2022-2025 cycles, where similar conditions spurred declines.
While technical patterns and market drivers support a bullish outlook for XRP, the discrepancy between valuation and on-chain activity, combined with a high potential for profit-taking, indicates that sustaining a rally toward $30 and beyond may encounter substantial resistance.
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