As institutional interest in Solana (SOL) surges, the open interest for Solana futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has reached an all-time high of $2.16 billion. This spike coincides with a 23% increase in Solana’s price, reflecting rising optimism ahead of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on a Solaris ETF scheduled for October 10.
Institutional Interest in Futures Contracts
The growth of open interest at CME highlights a significant moment for Solana, as it appears to find a local low while institutions position themselves aggressively ahead of critical regulatory developments.
Currently, CME’s annualized basis stands at 16.37%, a drop from its peak of 35% in July, indicating a constructive but not overheated futures market. Conversely, open interest from retail traders on centralized exchanges has remained relatively steady, with funding rates close to neutrality.
This cautious stance among retail traders reflects the lingering effects of $307 million in liquidations that occurred on September 22, when $250 million in long positions were wiped out. The divergence between institutional confidence and retail skepticism contributes to a more balanced market dynamic.
Market analysts observe that the current setup minimizes the risk of excessive volatility. While institutions appear to be consolidating their positions, a lack of retail momentum helps to avert speculative excess, fostering a bullish yet measured context less prone to sharp downturns.
Increasing Institutional Adoption through ETPs
Beyond futures activity, the institutional demand for Solana has been bolstered by inflows into regulated investment products. This week, Solana exchange-traded products (ETPs) surpassed $500 million in assets under management (AUM).
Leading the charge is the Solana Staking ETF (SSK) from REXShares, which has crossed the $400 million mark in assets. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETP (BSOL) has also topped $100 million.
Both products have experienced rapid growth since their launch, underscoring the increasing appetite for regulated vehicles that provide exposure to Solana. This milestone illustrates Solana’s rising traction among institutional investors, not only through derivatives but also via asset management channels.
As speculation intensifies around a potential U.S.-listed Solana ETF, these developments signal growing confidence in the long-term adoption of the altcoin.
Price Outlook: Balanced but Bullish
The short-term price trajectory of Solana hinges on the return of retail traders to the market. Analysts note that a retracement to the $218-$210 range would still align with a bullish structure.
This retreat would correlate with a fair value gap (FVG) on the four-hour chart and would retest the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA).
The liquidation heat map also highlights a liquidity cluster of over $200 million between $220 and $200, making this area a potential short-term magnet. A correction within this range could help establish a higher low while shaking off latecomers.
On the upside, movement above $245 to $250 would signal renewed strength, potentially propelling SOL towards its historic highs near $290. With institutional inflows and ETF speculation weighing increasingly in favor, this outcome appears attainable.
For now, Solana futures reflect a market transitioning from fear to cautious accumulation. Institutions are anchoring the trend, and their growing presence in both futures and ETPs suggests that any corrections will likely be superficial rather than jeopardizing the overall trend.
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